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TODAY WE ARE EXACTLY 0001 DAYS AWAY FROM 12-21-12

Posted by Admin on December 19, 2012

TODAY WE ARE EXACTLY 1111 AWAY FROM 12-21-12

Posted By: Gnostic <Send E-Mail>
Date: Saturday, 5-Dec-2009 13:41:06

We are now 1111 days away from December 21st 2012… I found this interesting to say the least after watching the powerful movie called 2012. I am so amazed how far our technology has advanced with special effects in movies. I am still at a loss to figure out how they do it. I found the movie pretty spectacular as it kept you on the edge of your seat from start to finish. Some of the scenes seem quite unbelievable how a family kept escaping disaster, but it made for good film.My wife and I enjoyed the movie and yet as I walked out of the theater I could not help but wonder why so many are placing so much import on this date 12/21/12… It is said based upon the Mayan calendar that the world appears to end at this date, I don’t believe the Mayans actually ever said that, its just their calender ends at this date. The problem with this theory is even if the Mayans were able to calculate some event that would extinguish the world, when would that event occur?The fact is, we cannot place any import on this evidence because our entire history has been so modified that there is no concurrent history that we could follow simply because the times and seasons have all changed, and possibly by as much as a thousand or more years. Secondly, according to the Mayan interpreters this 2012 event is suppose to basically destroy the entire planet leaving only a small number left that may survive.

I do not see anything like this occurring of this magnitude in our lifetime and pretty much the lifetimes of our immediate future generations, “unless it is man made.” And this brings me to my real reason to discuss such an event. Once again we are being sent messages of great peril that is supposed to effect us all in a very calamitous manner. It seems we can’t find enough that is already wrong with this world we need extra incentive to believe destruction is immanent.

It appears as though every generation, every age of time, humanity has been sent messages of total absolute destruction coming their way. We have lived with fear and turmoil for so long it has become a part of our internal being. If it is not for Biblical prophecies, then it will be because the planet and the sun implode. No matter what it is, we have been fed with a diet of believing that our future is torn in tatters awaiting to claim us as its victim.

And what I find so strange about it all, is how humanity cannot see beyond the virtual world as if they are being seduced to believe that this is all there is. Personally I believe that the fear generated by these supposed end of the world events is promoting exactly what it is intended to promote, and that is a lack of any zeal to accomplish or fulfill your life’s plan. Yes the movie makes for good entertainment, but to accept is as valid, is not going to be very beneficial.

The ancients used to say, live every day as if it is your last, but plan as if their was no end. Personally I believe all of these cycles of fear and end time world events are being promoted by the darkness of the secret coalition. I am not saying that these events cannot occur, I am saying it is useless to spend your time worrying about it, or to place a date on it. There was an old adage that used to sway the hearts and minds of the innocence, and that is eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow you shall die. This belief actually creates chaos and confusion, and destroys any chance of you fulfilling your own personal destiny. You may die tomorrow but until then, do your best and be vigilant.

And you know the old saying, we shall bring you the chaos and then we shall deliver you, ordo/ab/chao. The ideology that we are entering end time events will only create one effect, and that is to completely surrender your minds and bodies over to those that will rise to save you. What is needed to be understood is there has never been any guarantees in life except for the fact you will leave this plane of awareness. This is the only guarantee… And yet somehow those in the dark circles of secrets are able to convince us that we should place all of our time and worrying efforts into accepting the inevitable as if there is nothing we can do.

Think about this movie called 2012… It was all about uncovering the secrets of the end time and then being one of the few who are to be saved. Or another way of saying it, is population control to eliminate billions so those in the dark circles can control the world the way they want to. Even in the movie it was about the corrupt being saved while the innocent perish. I don’t know about you, but who would want to be saved to be a vassal in the hands of the extremely corrupt that were saved because they purchased their ticket. Now think about it, what mindset does it serve to believe that billions will be eradicated except the few chosen by the dark elite, that will remain. It is all propaganda to surrender your minds over to those that want your bodies. It is all NEW WORLD ORDER PROPAGANDA!

What I am trying to say is the 2012 scenario is full of holes. And you can bet the entire philosophy behind the 2012 scenario was created by sinister agents of the New World Order. I have said so often even if the Mayans did predict an end-time scenario, there is no way we could possibly know when that would be since our entire world’s history was recreated by those that want you to believe in the 2012 scenario.

This specific date is based on the belief that our entire chronology is correct, but those that have had access to the real time line know without a doubt that this is all bunk. Our chronology is not correct, period. It is simply the manufacturing of events creating by victors of war. Brand new histories, cultures and time lines were created by fiat. Even when Justinian using his General Belasarius defeated the Barbarian armies, of the Ostrogoths & Vandals that destroyed the Roman Empire, Justinian came on the scene to restore the Imperial Empire back to the way it was. But in so doing he changed the religion, the times and seasons to fit the new regime. And thus we have been handed down that which was changed, not that which had been prior. We do not know without the blueprint what year we are living in or what culture we belong to for real.

Just like people need to believe in a linear time cycle, they also need to believe in a linear Historical cycle, and yet they fail to comprehend that in this world it would be nearly impossible to have such a feat. Nothing has been linear about our world, it is a concoction of recreating themes one after another.

The fact is every generation believes they are living in the end time, and have been so since recorded history. And yet we are still here…BUT THEY ARE NOT…This is the SECRET

The entire philosophy behind the end time is one of creating within humanity a failure intensity without the ability to change. All of prophecy and predictions were caste in stone not to help humanity but to cause them to give up on themselves and their abilities. These warnings are not there for you to change, they are their to create the mindset of inevitability. It is causing you to give up before your physical life has ended.

And this brings me to the final conclusion of the matter… These end time beliefs and dates are nothing more than redirections being imposed upon your psyche from another awareness that is not set for your elucidation, but for ignorance. It is the attempt to stop each and every one of us in our tracks from fulfilling our objective. Each one of us has a life plan in one form or another. This is our destiny… if you cut short that plan then you will have failed to achieve your goal. Today is the last day to fulfill your plan, until Tomorrow…

Here are the facts… December 21st 2012 means absolutely nothing to you individually, you know why, because you may not even be here by then. You see the real facts are, there is no guarantee that you will be here tomorrow, so why worry about what may occur years down the road. You cannot change one jot or tittle of the destiny of the planet. All you can do is fulfill your life plan. And whether that plan comes to and end in 2012, or tomorrow, or in 50 years, your job is to fulfill your mission.

Instead of worrying about your life’s end, which will come to all one way or the other, begin concentrating on how you can create improvement now and for the future. Remember all of your ancestors of the past are gone, their end time came along time ago. The real fact of life is, the end time comes individually to all, according to each one’s life plan. Your mission if you choose to accept it, IS NOT TO EAT DRINK AND BE MERRY, it is make the best of the time you have for tomorrow may be your 12/21/12….or not!

And as I noticed today, 12/05/09, it is exactly 1111 days before this nefarious date, this number has often been relegated to bringing on a new consciousness awareness. So instead of worrying about 2012, concern your self with the fulfillment of your life plan today, for everyone will eventually come to their 2012, but what will have they accomplished…

GNOSTIC

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Posted in Anomalic Interferences, Conspiracy Archives, Earth Changes, Economic Upheavals, Exopolitical Interventions, Geo-Politics, Global Research, Rated R, The Esoteric Agenda of Humanity, Truthout Articles | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on TODAY WE ARE EXACTLY 0001 DAYS AWAY FROM 12-21-12

Shutdown hits normal life in Karnataka

Posted by Admin on October 7, 2012

http://in.news.yahoo.com/shutdown-hits-normal-life-karnataka-063958980–finance.html

By Indo Asian News Service | IANS India Private Limited – 14 hours ago

Bangalore, Oct 6 (IANS) A day-long shutdown to protest the release of Cauvery river water to Tamil Nadu crippled life in Karnataka Saturday.

The state-wide shutdown called by farmers and pro-Kannada organisations is supported by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the opposition Congress and Janata Dal-Secular.

Uneasy calm prevailed in Bangalore and other cities and towns of the state.

“The 12-hour shutdown began at 6 a.m. There were stray incidents of road blockade, forcible closure of shops and damage to a couple of state-run buses,” a senior police official told IANS here.

The state-run transport services of Kerala State Road Transport Corporation (KSRTC) and Bangalore Metropolitan Transport Corporation (BMTC) were suspended amid fears of damage to the vehicles by miscreants.

Although train and flight services remained unaffected, passengers were stranded at the railway station here, as autorickshaws and taxis remained off the roads.

The state education department late Friday advised schools and colleges to declare a holiday Saturday to ensure safety of students during the bandh.

Companies offering 24×7 services like call centres and business process outsourcing had to make arrangements to escort their employees to work and back home.

With commercial establishments like shops, malls, restaurants and petrol pumps shut, life has virtually come to a standstill in the state capital, Mysore, Hassan, Mangalore, Hubli, Belgaum and Shimoga.

Supply of essential commodities like milk and medicines and ambulance service were, however, exempted from the shutdown.

The security has been beefed up across the state.

Additional police personnel were deployed at vital installations and sensitive areas, especially in Bangalore.

The state has been releasing 9,000 cusecs of water daily since Sep 29 in compliance with the Supreme Court order of Sep 19, directing the prime minister, who is also the chairman of the Cauvery River Authority, to supervise the distribution of water in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

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Power cut hits millions, among world’s worst outages

Posted by Admin on August 1, 2012

http://in.news.yahoo.com/power-blackout-sweeps-north-india-second-day-081130063.html

By Frank Jack Daniel | Reuters – 2 hours 10 minutes ago

              NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Hundreds of millions of people across India were left without power on Tuesday in one of the world’s worst blackouts, trapping miners, stranding train travellers and plunging hospitals into darkness when grids collapsed for the second time in two days.

Stretching from Assam to the Himalayas and the northwestern deserts of Rajasthan, the outage covered states where half of India’s 1.2 billion people live and embarrassed the government, which has failed to build up enough power capacity to meet soaring demand.

“Even before we could figure out the reason for yesterday’s failure, we had more grid failures today,” said R.N. Nayak, chairman of the state-run Power Grid Corporation.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had vowed to fast-track stalled power and infrastructure projects as well as introduce free market reforms aimed at reviving India’s flagging economy. But he has drawn fire for dragging his feet.

By nightfall, power was back up in the humid capital, New Delhi and much of the north, but a senior official said only a third was restored in the rural state of Uttar Pradesh, itself home to more people than Brazil.

The cuts in such a widespread area of the world’s second most populous nation appeared to be one of the biggest in history, and hurt Indians’ pride as the country seeks to emerge as a major force on the international stage.

“It’s certainly shameful. Power is a very basic amenity and situations like these should not occur,” said Unnayan Amitabh, 19, an intern with HSBC bank in New Delhi, before giving up on the underground train system and flagging down an auto-rickshaw to get home.

“They talk about big ticket reforms but can’t get something as essential as power supply right.”

Power Minister Sushilkumar Shinde blamed the system collapse on some states drawing more than their share of electricity from the over-burdened grid, but Uttar Pradesh’s top civil servant for energy said outdated transmission lines were at fault.

Asia’s third-largest economy suffers a peak-hour power deficit of about 10 percent, dragging on economic growth.

Between a quarter and 40 percent of Indians are not connected to the national grid.

Two hundred miners were stranded in three deep coal shafts in the state of West Bengal when their electric elevators stopped working. Eastern Coalfields Limited official Niladri Roy said workers at the mines, one of which is 700 metres (3,000 feet) deep, were not in danger and were being taken out.

Train stations in Kolkata were swamped and traffic jammed the streets after government offices closed early in the dilapidated coastal city of 5 million people.

The power failed in some major city hospitals and office buildings had to fire up diesel generators.

By mid-evening, services had been restored on the New Delhi metro system.

“PUSHED INTO DARKNESS”

On Monday, India was forced to buy extra power from the tiny neighbouring kingdom of Bhutan to help it recover from a blackout that hit more than 300 million people.

Indians took to social networking sites to ridicule the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, in part for promoting Shinde despite the power cuts.

Narendra Modi, an opposition leader and chief minister in Gujarat, a state that enjoys a surplus of power, was scornful.

“With poor economic management UPA has emptied the pockets of common man; kept stomachs hungry with inflation & today pushed them into darkness,” he said on his Twitter account.

The country’s southern and western grids were supplying power to help restore services, officials said.

The problem has been made worse by a weak monsoon in agricultural states such as wheat-belt Punjab and Uttar Pradesh in the Ganges plain, which has a larger population than Brazil.

With less rain to irrigate crops, more farmers resort to electric pumps to draw water from wells.

India’s electricity distribution and transmission is mostly state run, with private companies operating in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata. Less than a quarter of generation is private nationwide.

More than half the country’s electricity is generated by coal, with hydro power and nuclear also contributing.

Power shortages and a creaky road and rail network have weighed heavily on India’s efforts to industrialize. Grappling with the slowest economic growth in nine years, the government recently scaled back a target to pump $1 trillion into infrastructure over the next five years.

Major industries have their own power plants or diesel generators and are shielded from outages. But the inconsistent supply hits investment and disrupts small businesses.

High consumption of heavily subsidized diesel by farmers and businesses has fuelled a gaping fiscal deficit that the government has vowed to tackle to restore confidence in the economy.

But the poor monsoon means a subsidy cut is politically difficult.

On Tuesday, the central bank cut its economic growth outlook for the fiscal year that ends in March to 6.5 percent, from the 7.3 percent assumption made in April, putting its outlook closer to that of many private economists.

“This is going to have a substantial adverse impact on the overall economic activity. Power failure for two consecutive days hits sentiment very badly,” said N. Bhanumurthy, a senior economist at National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

(Reporting by Delhi Bureau; Sujoy Dhar in Kolkata and Sharat Pradhan in Lucknow; Writing by Frank Jack Daniel; Editing by Robert Birsel and Diana Abdallah)

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Baba Ramdev dares Govt. to prove his black money estimates wrong

Posted by Admin on July 4, 2012

http://in.news.yahoo.com/baba-ramdev-dares-govt-prove-black-money-estimates-061107840.html

By ANI | ANI – 14 hours ago

Jaipur, July 3 (ANI): Yoga Guru Baba Ramdev has dared the Congress-led UPA Government at the Centre to prove his estimate of 400 trillion rupees’ worth of black money being stashed in safe havens abroad wrong.

Baba Ramdev said he was ready for punishment if proved wrong.

“It is said that the statistics given by me are false, and that I am lying and presenting the people with a false dream. I say that if I am lying and presenting false statistics, then I should be given the most stringent punishment. But if I am speaking the truth, then do not evade it,” he said.

Baba Ramdev further said that graft was destroying India’s democracy at its roots, and added that the present system needed to be replaced by a more just and equitable one.

“Approximately 400 trillion rupees that have been looted by corrupt people should come back to the country. Graft has eaten away the roots of our democracy and made them hollow. Democracy has become more about loot, graft and currency notes today. It must be saved. The current system must be replaced with one that provides economic and social justice to all,” he said.

Baba Ramdev, who sat on a daylong fast Delhi along with veteran social activist Anna Hazare at the Jantar Mantar in New earlier last month, had demanded that the government should follow the steps suggested by him in its endeavor to bring back black money stashed abroad.

Baba Ramdev, who has been at loggerheads with the government over a range of national issues for the past many months, had also called on the government last year to pursue billions of dollars in illegal funds abroad and the withdrawal of high denomination bank notes. (ANI)

Posted in Conspiracy Archives, Economic Upheavals, Geo-Politics, India Forgotten | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Baba Ramdev dares Govt. to prove his black money estimates wrong

Pakistan SC disqualifies Prime Minister Gilani

Posted by Admin on June 20, 2012

http://in.news.yahoo.com/pakistan-sc-disqualifies-prime-minister-gilani.html

Gilani was found guilty of contempt for refusing to ask Swiss authorities to re-open corruption cases against President Zardari.

Yahoo! India News – 10 hours ago

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Supreme Court on Tuesday disqualified Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani from holding his office following his conviction in a contempt case.

The Supreme Court of Pakistan had on April 26 convicted Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani for contempt of court for his refusal to comply with the order to write to Switzerland authorities asking them to re-open corruption cases against President Asif Ali Zardari.

“Since no appeal was filed (against the April 26 conviction) … therefore Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani stands disqualifed as a member of the Majlis-e-Shoora (parliament)…,” said Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry in a packed courtroom.

“He has also ceased to be the prime minister of Pakistan … the office of the prime minister stands vacant.”

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the Supreme Court asked President Asif Ali Zardari to ensure that steps are taken for the continuation of democracy in Pakistan.

Gilani and his government have refused to obey the court’s order to write to Swiss authorities asking them to re-open money laundering cases against Zardari. The government argues that Zardari has immunity as the head of state.

Gilani was convicted for violating Article 63(1) (g) of Pakistan’s constitution by a seven-judge bench of the court, headed by Justice Nasirul Mulk.

Accused of graft, Zardari had been granted amnesty under the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) in 2007 by the then President Pervez Musharraf to facilitate his return home and, primarily that of his wife, former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

The NRO that granted immunity to politicians and bureaucrats in corruption cases was struck down as void in 2009.

On January 16, 2012, the court issued a contempt notice against Gilani for not acting against Zardari.

Gilani was indicted for contempt of court on February 13.

The case stems from what many observers say is a political battle between the government and the military, which has held the whip in Pakistan’s political arena for most of the country’s 64 years of independence. Many say the army is using the court to keep the government on the back foot.

Thousands of corruption cases were thrown out in 2007 by an amnesty law passed under former military President Pervez Musharraf, which paved the way for a return to civilian rule.

Two years later, the Pakistan Supreme Court ruled that agreement illegal and ordered cases involving Swiss banks against President Asif Ali Zardari re-opened.

Pakistan’s Constitution says that anyone convicted of ridiculing the judiciary is barred from remaining in office as a member of parliament, but experts said that it would take a long time to disqualify Gilani.

Gilani has been the longest-serving Pakistani prime minister ever. This is the first time ever in Pakistan’s history that a prime minister appeared before the court and was convicted of contempt.

Posted in Conspiracy Archives, Economic Upheavals, Geo-Politics, Press Releases | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Pakistan SC disqualifies Prime Minister Gilani

No impact of rupee slide on banks: SBI chief

Posted by Admin on May 30, 2012

IMG_9746_pcs_1 Same same but different. 500 In...

IMG_9746_pcs_1 Same same but different. 500 Indian Rupee (Photo credit: artist in doing nothing)

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/no-impact-rupee-slide-banks-145252120.html

IANS – Mon 28 May, 2012 8:22 PM IST

Bangalore, May 28 (IANS) The rupee’s slide against the dollar had no impact on Indian banking operations though profitability of importers would be affected, State Bank of India (SBI) chairman and managing director Pratip Chaudhary said Monday.

“There is no impact of a falling rupee on banks but it (slide) would strain the profitability of our importing customers, while exporting customers will have an advantage,” Chaudhary told reporters on the margins of a bank function here.

At the same time, despite currency volatility, the bank has seen higher remittances from non-resident Indians (NRIs) in their accounts to benefit from the conversion from dollar to rupee.

Owing to external and internal factors, the Indian rupee has weakened by 23 percent during the last five months, hitting a record low of Rs.56.40 May 23 but recovered slightly to trade in the Rs.54.80-Rs.55.50 range subsequently. It was trading at Rs.55.26 Monday.

Noting that further cut in interest rate would depend on government borrowings this fiscal (2012-13), the chairman said banks were borrowing at 8.5 percent (from the RBI) and lending (primary rate) to the corporate sector at nine percent and above as the government borrowings was at eight percent currently.

“Lowering of interest rate is largely determined by the rate at which the government borrows from the central bank. If the RBI cuts rates further, banks will be in a position to lower lending rate,” Chaudhury said after donating a Rs.8.40-lakh school bus to Angavikalara Ashakirana Trustat Davangere, about 260km from here, as a gift from the bank’s regional office.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) April 17 reduced key rates such as repo (repurchase) rate 50 basis points (0.5 percent) to 8 percent from 8.5 percent, resulting in the reverse repurchase rate decreasing to 7 percent from 7.5 percent for this fiscal (FY 2013).

The repo rate is the interest the central bank levies on short-term borrowings by commercial banks. The reverse repo rate is the interest on short-term lending. A cut in these rates rate reduces the cost of accessing funds for lending institutions.

As the SBI’s base lending rate was at 10 percent, lowest among state-run banks, it did not lower it further after the RBI’s rate cut.

“We have, however, reduced interest rates on loans for education and purchase of cars and to small and medium enterprises (SMEs),” Chaudhury added.

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How resilient is Indian economy?

Posted by Admin on May 30, 2012

Structure of the organised banking sector in I...

Structure of the organised banking sector in India. Number of banks are in brackets. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/resilient-indian-economy-030000550.html

Equitymaster – 18 hours ago

The growth forecasts for Indian economy have recently been revised downwards. Reeling under gross mismanagement, the Indian economy seems to be in a state of mess. However, the Finance Minister feels otherwise. He believes that India is in a better position than other economies to deal with it on account of high savings rate and domestic demand along with regulatory mechanisms.

Given the current circumstances, the picture portrayed by Finance Minister is too rosy to be real. He draws support from a huge young population and hence a robust domestic demand, a strong Indian banking system and diversified exports base. However, with disturbances in the global economy, it is only logical to expect that demand of exported goods will slow down.

The role of major Asian economies, especially India and China, in running the global growth engine can’t be undermined. These economies have the advantage of a huge chunk of young population that will keep the demand vibrant and add to the productivity. However, while China is making the right moves by shifting focus to tap the domestic demand, India seems to have landed itself in a very precarious situation.

With twin deficits gaping us wide in our face and rupee in a free fall, an optimistic tone for Indian economy looks so out of place. Our regulatory mechanisms might have worked in the past; however, the country seems to be falling too short on action in policy front. This is keeping foreign investors at bay. The absence of domestic funds and lack of foreign investment will lead to infrastructural deficit thus wasting the potential of youngsters. It is said that tough times can teach a lot. Looks like our time to learn has come. Hope the Government stops fiddling while the country is burning and wakes up to the need of reforms before it is too late.

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Why Portugal May Be the Next Greece

Posted by Admin on May 22, 2012

http://business.time.com/2012/03/27/why-portugal-may-be-the-next-greece/

Why Portugal May Be the Next Greece

The worst is over for the euro zone, the experts say. But Greece isn’t really fixed and Portugal could become a second big problem before year-end

By Michael Sivy | @MFSivy | March 27, 2012

When Greece celebrated its Independence Day on Sunday, there were scattered protests over the harsh austerity program aimed at stabilizing the country’s finances. The government reportedly removed low-hanging fruit from bitter-orange trees along the parade route, so it couldn’t be thrown by protesters. But, basically, the most recent bailout appears to be successful. As a result, worries about the European financial crisis have diminished somewhat. Indeed, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi has said that the worst is over for the euro-currency zone.

Such optimism may be premature, however. Not only does Greece remain a long-term financial concern, but in addition Portugal is on track to become a second big problem.

The dangers Greece still poses are clear. Higher taxes and government-spending cuts may reduce new borrowing, but such austerity policies also undermine a country’s ability to pay the interest on its existing debt. Unless accompanied by progrowth policies, austerity can become the financial equivalent of a medieval doctor trying to cure patients by bleeding them. In addition, the bailout plan for Greece consisted of marking down the value of much of the country’s debt held by banks and other private lenders. That means entities such as the European Central Bank now hold most of Greece’s remaining debt. And so, in the event of a default, important international institutions would suffer the greatest damage.

(MORE: Is Germany’s Euro-Crisis Strategy Actually Working?)

The net result has been to postpone the Greek financial crisis for months or even a couple of years, while raising the stakes if things go wrong. That could be seen as a considerable achievement, if you believe Greece is a unique case and that the problem has been successfully contained. The trouble is that other countries — and especially Portugal — seem to be heading down the same path. Here’s why forecasters are worried:

Portuguese interest rates haven’t come down. Because of the Greek crisis, bond yields rose to dangerous levels in several financially troubled European countries. Then after Greece was bailed out, yields fell in most of them. In Italy, yields on bonds with maturities of around 10 years dropped from more than 7.2% to around 5%; in Spain, from 6.7% to 5.4%; and in Ireland, from 9.7% to 6.9%. The notable exception was Portugal, where bond yields came down a bit but still remain above 12%. Double-digit borrowing costs are impossible for a heavily indebted country to sustain for any significant period of time. Yet Portugal’s bond yields have been above 10% for the past nine months.

Portugal’s total debt is greater than that of Greece. In one way, Greece really is unique — the country’s massive debt is largely the result of borrowing by the government rather than by the private sector (corporations and households). By contrast, Portugal, Spain and Ireland have far more private-sector debt. As a result, while government debt in Portugal is less than that of Greece, relative to GDP, total debt (including private-sector debt) is actually greater.

(MORE: The Most Important Man in Europe)

The Portuguese economy is shrinking. Portugal’s economy has been weak ever since the financial crisis began in 2008, and the country has actually been in recession for more than a year. Moreover, last month the Portuguese government projected that the country’s economy would contract by 3.3% in 2012. As Portuguese companies struggle to pay off their own massive debt, it’s hard to imagine that they will be able to help pull the country out of recession.

Thanks to a bailout last year, Portugal has enough money to make it into 2013, despite brutally high interest rates and a shrinking economy. But the markets are unlikely to wait that long to go on red alert. In the case of Greece, bond yields topped 13% in April 2011, and by September they were above 20% and heading for 35%. Portuguese yields have been above 11.9% for the past four months and have topped 13% several times. If the country follows the same timeline as Greece, Portugal could suffer a serious financial crisis before the end of the year.

There are a number of reasons such an outcome would be serious, despite the relatively small size of Portugal’s economy. First, the European Union has been operating on the assumption that Greece is a unique case, a poor country suffering from rampant tax fraud and an unusually dysfunctional government bureaucracy. If another euro-zone country experiences similar problems — and they occur partly because of private-sector debt rather than government borrowing — then the flaws in the system start looking more general, and the stability of the entire euro zone is called into question.

(LIST: The 10 Most Memorable Ads Featuring Celebrities And Their Kin)

Moreover, much of the borrowing by Portuguese companies has been financed by Spanish banks. That creates the possibility of a domino effect, whereby a financial squeeze in Portugal leads to a crunch in the Spanish banking sector. Moreover, the debt structure in both Spain and Ireland — with large amounts of private-sector borrowing — is similar to that of Portugal. Germany and the Netherlands are already balking at making further loans to Greece. And although Northern European countries could afford to bail out Portugal, their resources are limited. If a second country goes the way of Greece, several more might well follow.

Since Europe’s problems seem to have receded for the moment, U.S. investors are understandably focused on other risks — like conflict with Iran that could sharply push up oil prices, or fights over taxes and the federal budget in the run-up to the elections. But the danger of a European financial crisis has not gone away — and the ultimate costs could run to more than half a trillion dollars.

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Is a Greek Exit from the Euro Inevitable?

Posted by Admin on May 22, 2012

http://business.time.com/2012/05/21/is-a-greek-exit-from-the-euro-inevitable/

Is a Greek Exit from the Euro Inevitable?

By Michael Schuman | @MichaelSchuman | May 21, 2012

Kostas Tsironis / AP

For 2½ years, the world has been watching and waiting to see if debt-laden Greece can remain in the euro zone. Many have been doubtful since the beginning of the debt crisis. Greece’s government debt is simply too burdensome, the fiscal adjustment imposed on Athens is too severe, the Greeks are too resistant to the tough reforms that are necessary and the rest of Europe is too bullheaded to change its approach to suit reality. But for 2½ years, Greece has nevertheless managed to scrape by and remain in the monetary union, thanks to two European Union–IMF bailouts (totaling $300 billion), which have kept Greece on life support, and repeated promises to reform by Greece’s major political parties.

Now, however, the Greek debt crisis may finally be reaching the endgame. The likelihood of a Greek exit from the euro zone has been growing, and that has scary consequences for the rest of Europe as well as the global economy.

(PHOTOS: Protests in Athens)

The spiral toward disaster has been tipped off by Greek politics. A general election earlier this month eliminated what little hope remained that Athens could press through with the painful austerity measures and structural reforms demanded by the euro zone in return for bailout cash. The fractured result made it impossible for a government to form, and a new election has been called for June 17. But even if that poll brings some political stability, the odds that the bailout can go ahead as planned are practically zero. A vast majority of the votes in the last election went to parties that either want to renegotiate the terms of the bailout or ditch the agreement entirely. Whether the bailout scheme can continue will depend on the willingness of the rest of Europe to make concessions to Greece in a better, softer rescue agreement and the willingness of Athens’ politicians to agree to new terms. These are very open questions.

The problem is that without that rescue money, Greece will very likely have to exit the euro zone. The Greek government would quickly run out of money to function, leaving Athens no choice but to return to its national currency, the drachma. This scenario could unfold with surprising speed. Here are Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analysts on that score:

If no government is in place before June, when the next instalment from the EU/IMF is due, we estimate that Greece would run out of money sometime between the end of June and early July, at which point a return to the drachma seems to us inevitable.

Even if the Greek government gets its act together and the bailouts continue, there is another force steadily pushing Greece out of the euro zone. Greeks are removing their deposits from Greek banks. They have been doing this for a while, but the pace seems to have accelerated recently. In just one day last week, Greeks yanked some $900 million of deposits from the banks. This process is quaintly called a “bank jog,” but it is much more dangerous than a quiet run through a park. It is effectively a slow-motion run on banks, and a natural consequence of the uncertainty surrounding Greece’s tenuous position in the euro zone. If Greece is forced to ditch the euro and return to the drachma, Greeks know full well that their drachmas will be sharply devalued relative to the euro. So keeping their money in Greek banks now could result in a big hit to their welfare. Instead of facing that risk, Greeks are withdrawing money from banks to preserve their wealth.

(MORE: After the Fall: Greece’s Former Prime Minister Assesses the State of His Nation)

That makes sense from the standpoint of the Greek saver, but not for the banking sector. As Greek banks empty of euros, the financial system comes closer to failure. So far, the European Central Bank has been plugging the hole by acting as a lender of last resort to the Greek banking system. But there is a limit to how much financing the ECB might be willing to inject. Gavyn Davies of the Financial Times did a great job of explaining how this bank run is happening, and why the ECB could eventually fail to contain it:

The problem is that [ECB support for Greek banks] potentially exposes the ECB to much bigger losses than anything which has been contemplated so far by the core economies. Up to now, the ECB has been willing to inject liquidity to cover the financing needs of the periphery banks as the inter-bank market has dried up. If instead, they have to contemplate providing semi-permanent funds to cover large further withdrawals of bank deposits, the size and timescale of the injection becomes extraordinarily large.

If the ECB doesn’t continue to finance Greek banks, Athens could be forced to withdraw from the euro zone and restore its currency. That on its own would be destabilizing. But even more worrisome, the bank jog in Greece has the potential to become a euro zone–wide bank run. Seeing what’s going on in Greece, depositors in other weak euro-zone economies (Portugal, Spain, Italy) have the same incentive to yank money out of their banks. That could end with the total unraveling of the monetary union. The fears that this theoretical scenario will become reality are increasing in Europe. Here’s how economist Paul Krugman explained it in the New York Times:

Right now, Greece is experiencing what’s being called a “bank jog” — a somewhat slow-motion bank run, as more and more depositors pull out their cash in anticipation of a possible Greek exit from the euro. Europe’s central bank is, in effect, financing this bank run by lending Greece the necessary euros; if and (probably) when the central bank decides it can lend no more, Greece will be forced to abandon the euro and issue its own currency again. This demonstration that the euro is, in fact, reversible would lead, in turn, to runs on Spanish and Italian banks. Once again the European Central Bank would have to choose whether to provide open-ended financing; if it were to say no, the euro as a whole would blow up.

(MORE: Will Greece Need Another Election to Form a Government?)

How can the euro zone stop this from happening? It will require a degree of political commitment and policy flexibility so far absent from the zone’s approach to the debt crisis. When a national government confronts a run on banks, the way to solve it is to guarantee deposits and ensure that banks have enough cash to meet withdrawals. The problem with the euro is that individual national governments don’t have control over their own money. So the euro zone as a whole has to step in and back up the banks like a national government would. The euro zone likely requires some sort of guarantee scheme akin to the U.S.’s Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. But supporting the euro banking system is this way might demand yet more resources from stronger euro-zone economies like Germany. It would also probably entail more E.U.-level control over national banking sectors. Both steps would prove difficult.

More broadly, Europe can squelch the bank jog if it shows more commitment to the euro and keeping Greece in the union. The longer this period of uncertainty over Greece’s status drags on, the more deposits will flee Greece, and the more likely a euro exit becomes.

Clearly, a Greek exit from the euro zone would be traumatic for Greece and the rest of Europe, and send shock waves through global financial markets. But can a Greek exit from the monetary union really take down the euro itself? That’s a topic for another post …

MORE: Election of French President François Hollande Heralds End to Austerity

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Euro Crisis: Why a Greek Exit Could Be Much Worse than Expected

Posted by Admin on May 22, 2012

http://news.yahoo.com/euro-crisis-why-greek-exit-could-much-worse-082511184.html

Euro Crisis: Why a Greek Exit Could Be Much Worse than Expected

By MICHAEL SIVY | Time.com – 4 hrs ago

 At the Camp David G8 meeting last weekend, lip service was paid to keeping Greece in the euro zone. But economists who watch the continuing financial crisis in Europe are increasingly coming to two conclusions: Greece is likely to abandon the common euro currency now used by 17 European countries. And when it does, perhaps within a matter of months, there will be a damaging domino effect throughout much of Europe. Not all domino effects are created equal, however. And there are two possible consequences if Greece leaves the euro zone that few observers seem to have considered.

The scenario everyone recognizes is based on Greece reviving its traditional drachma currency. What this means is that salaries and prices within Greece would be converted from euros to drachmas, and then the drachma currency would be allowed to depreciate to make the Greek economy more competitive. The problem comes with debts that are denominated in euros, especially if the lenders are outside of Greece. These lenders would naturally resist being repaid with less valuable drachmas. However, if Greek borrowers have to repay the loans with euros, the debt would become more expensive for them to pay off after the drachma is devalued.

(PHOTOS: Protests in Athens)

The most likely domino effect, therefore — and the one most widely expected — is that debts to non-Greek creditors are compromised after Greece switches to the drachma. Either there would be lawsuits over which currency to use, or borrowers would default on the loans, or the lenders would be forced to accept reductions in the amount of the loan that has to be repaid, in order to avoid outright defaults. Whichever outcome occurs, the lenders lose money. Just as in the U.S. mortgage-lending crisis, once some banks lose enough money to become troubled, the contamination spreads to other banks, because they all lend to each other.

That’s not a pleasant prospect, but at least it’s fairly clear how to manage it. Greece leaves the euro zone, and its economy suffers for a couple of years but then stabilizes. With Greece gone, the rest of the euro zone could be propped up more easily. Many major banks take big losses on Greek debt. Some fail, some are taken over by stronger banks. Governments have to bail out the biggest losers. And the banking system is made sound again, although at considerable expense to taxpayers in many countries.

(MORE: Why Portugal May Be the Next Greece)

But what if Greece’s exit from the euro zone causes other kinds of domino effects that don’t have obvious precedents? The fallout could be a lot harder to control. As I see it, there are two possible scenarios that aren’t getting the attention they should.

Derivatives could set off a global chain reaction. Most people have heard of the complex, “synthetic” financial securities known as derivatives, which Warren Buffett famously referred to as “financial weapons of mass destruction.” In the case of bonds, these are known as credit derivatives. They include all sorts of loans secured by bonds, as well as incredibly complicated vehicles that amount to insurance policies if the bonds default. No one really knows how much of this stuff is sloshing around the international financial system, but the total value for all types of bonds was estimated at more than $50 trillion in 2008 and has continued to grow rapidly since then. Trouble is, if the bonds underlying these derivatives become questionable, all the derivatives become uncertain, too, even if they add up to far more than the value of the bonds themselves. Moreover, some of the synthetic investments based on Greek bonds could be governed by Greek law, some by British law (if anything originated in London), and some by U.S. law (if Wall Street was involved).

(MORE: Is a Greek Exit from the Euro Inevitable?)

What if one legal system accepts the conversion of euro loans into drachmas and another one doesn’t? Everything could be thrown into the courts for months. Even worse, if synthetic investments secured by Greek bonds become untrustworthy, why would anyone trust similarly complex investments involving Spanish bonds or Italian bonds?

The result of a meltdown in the world of derivative investments could cause far more chaos than simple bond defaults, not least because it would be almost impossible to figure out who owed how much to whom.

Greece recovers quickly and all the other troubled countries want out of the euro zone too. At the opposite end of the spectrum is the possibility that Greece abandons the euro and bounces back surprisingly fast. Paradoxically, that could cause another sort of disaster. Both Argentina and Iceland suffered currency collapses, and after a horrible year or two, both rebounded and were better off than if they had fought to save a failing currency. Analysts point out that both countries were big exporters of grain, meat or fish, and that sales boomed after currencies were devalued. But Greece, in its own way, could profit from a similar recovery — a rebound in tourism. A 30% drop in the exchange rate might make a vacation in Greece the best deal in years.

(MORE: The Future of Oil: The Environmental and Economic Costs of New Exploration)

So why would that be bad? Think of what it would mean for the other countries in the euro zone. How could the Italian government persuade its people of the need for higher taxes or the Spanish government explain soaring unemployment if Greece were obviously better off outside of the euro zone. Result: The entire European Union might unravel, with financial consequences many times greater than those resulting from Greece alone.

I’m certainly not predicting an extreme, doomsday scenario as the most likely outcome of a Greek exit. But it is important to realize just how unpredictable this situation is. In my own stock portfolio, I eliminated all the banks a long time ago and have largely stuck with financially strong companies that deal in essential goods — such as oil & gas, consumer staples and pharmaceuticals. The euro created a financial entity comparable in scale to the U.S., and if it gets into serious trouble the financial effects could be world-shaking.

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How Valencia reflects Spain’s economic crisis

Posted by Admin on May 19, 2012

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/photos/recession-in-spain-seen-through-pictures-slideshow/to-match-feature-spain-valencia–photo-1336628003.html

To match Feature SPAIN-VALENCIA/
A view of the City of Arts and Sciences, by architect Santiago Calatrava, is pictured in Valencia. The complex’s cost escalated from an initial 625 million euros ($808.93m) up to 1280 million euros, according to local media. ( REUTERS/Heino Kalis)
A panoramic view of the City of Arts and Sciences, by architect Santiago Calatrava, is seen in Valencia
Once the beacon of Spain’s new economic grandeur, the Mediterranean region of Valencia has become a symbol of all that is wrong with the country. (REUTERS/Heino Kalis)
The Palace of Arts Reina Sofia at the City of Arts and Ciences is pictured in Valencia is pictured in Valencia
The Palace of Arts Reina Sofia at the City of Arts and Sciences, by architect Santiago Calatrava. The palace’s cost escalated up to around 380 million euros, according to local media. (Heino Kalis/ Reuters)
A pedestrian walks past the Agora building and the Azud D'or bridge at the City of Arts and Sciences, designed by architect Calatrava, in Valencia
Agora building and the Azud D’or bridge at the City of Arts and Sciences.The cost of both structures escalated up to 150 million euros, according local media. (REUTERS/Heino Kalis)
A view of the City of Arts and Sciences, by architect Santiago Calatrava, is pictured in Valencia
A view of the City of Arts and Sciences. Years of free spending, coupled with a hangover from a burst real estate bubble and the collapse of local banks, have put Valencia on the brink of being bailed out by the central government – which has huge budget problems of its own. (REUTERS/Heino Kalis)
The Agora building at the City of Arts and Ciences is pictured in Valencia
The Agora building at the City of Arts and Sciences. The building’s cost escalated up to 86 million euros, according to local media. (REUTERS/Heino Kalis)
A view of the University and Polytechnic Hospital La Fe is seen in Valencia
A view of the University and Polytechnic Hospital La Fe is seen in Valencia April 25, 2012. The complex’s cost escalated up to 300 million euros. (REUTERS/Heino Kalis)
A building of the Universidad Politecnica de Valencia is seen in Valencia
A building of the Universidad Politecnica de Valencia is seen in Valencia April 25, 2012. (REUTERS/Heino Kalis)
To match Feature SPAIN-VALENCIA/
The control tower of the Costa Azahar airport is seen, one year after its official inauguration, near Castellon, in this April 24, 2012 file photo. The airport, whose cost escalated up to around 150 million euros, remains inactive due to construction failures, lack of permits and insufficient commercial interest from international airlines, according to local media. (REUTERS/Heino Kalis/Files)
Apartments for sale are seen, beside an unfinished block, in Valencia
Apartments for sale are seen, beside an unfinished block (back), in Valencia. The building sector’s implosion has forced into the open allegations that corrupt Valencian politicians, developers and bankers were in cahoots during a decade of easy money at low interest rates after Spain joined the euro in 1999. (REUTERS/Heino Kalis)
Demonstrators Protest European Central Bank Meeting
Thousands of Spaniards are protesting against austerity measures that politicians have proposed to ease the country’s economic crisis. (Left) A woman passes as police officers stand guard at Paseo de Gracia in the city centre as the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting is held at the Hotel Arts on May 3, 2012 in Barcelona, Spain. (Photo by Jasper Juinen/Getty Images).
A man rides his bicycle between policemen in riot gear who are guarding the venue of a meeting of the ECB in Barcelona
Click on Next to see images of daily life in Spain and public demonstrations across the country over the past year, protesting against the government’s spending cuts, labour market reforms, recession and overall economic crisis. (Image: Reuters)
People wait at a bus stop in front of an Asian shop after shopping in Malaga
People wait at a bus stop in front of an Asian shop after shopping in downtown Malaga, southern Spain May 4, 2012. The euro zone economy worsened markedly in April, according to business surveys. (REUTERS/Jon Nazca)
Homeless man walks at the financial district in Madrid
A homeless man walks at the financial district in Madrid April 19, 2012. France and Spain sold all the bonds they wanted at auction, though for Spain the cost was rising yields, indicating growing concerns the government will not be able to tame its deficit. After a brief respite fuelled by a trillion euros of cash the European Central Bank (ECB) lent Europe’s banks in December and February, markets are becoming nervous again about euro zone debt loads, with fears that Spain might follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal in needing a bailout from international lenders. (REUTERS/Andrea Comas)
Daily Life In Madrid Ahead Of General Elections
An unemployed man, Enrique, writes poems in return for a cash handout on the eve of the Spanish general elections on November 19, 2011 in the center of Madrid, Spain. (Photo by Jasper Juinen/Getty Images)
Demonstrations Against Eurozone Leaders' Agreed Pact For The Euro
Thousand of ‘indignants’ hold banners and shout slogans against the Euro zone leaders’s agreed ‘Pact For The Euro’ on June 19, 2011 in Barcelona, Spain. Thousands of Spaniards joined marches across Spain to protest against how the country’s economic crisis is being handled and the so-called “Euro Pact”, aimed at increasing the bloc’s competitiveness and economic stability. (Photo by David Ramos/Getty Images)
Economic Crisis In Spain Worsens As A General Election Looms
People queue up outside the Ave Maria charity food centre on November 9, 2011 in Madrid, Spain. Poor people and homeless are given a free breakfast at the centre run by the Fundacion Real Congregacion de Esclavos del Dulce Nombre de Maria. (Photo by Denis Doyle/Getty Images)
A protester, wearing an anonymous mask, protests after being prevented by police from gathering in Puerta del Sol square on August 2, 2011 in Madrid, Spain. The indignants were protesting high levels of unemployment, the austerity measures and what they consider a stagnant and corrupt political system. (Photo by Denis Doyle/Getty Images)
General Strike Hits Spain
A demonstrators sets fire to a barricade during rioting as a 24-hour strike is called, on March 29, 2012 in Barcelona, Spain. Spanish workers staged a general strike to protest the government’s latest labour reforms, which are designed to help Spain lower its deficit within EU limits. (Photo by David Ramos/Getty Images)
General Strike Hits Spain
Riot police walk past burning garbage containers during heavy clashes with demonstrators during a 24-hour strike on March 29, 2012 in Barcelona, Spain. (Photo by David Ramos/Getty Images)
Spanish Unions Protests Planned Government Cutbacks
People attend a demonstration organized by Unions against the financial cuts in health and education on April 29, 2012 in Madrid. Trade Unions CCOO and UGT called for a demonstration against the severe austerity plans of the Spanish government. In April, unemployment reached a record rate and the government has announced that immigrants with no legal status will not be covered by the health public services. The government aims to get the deficit down to 5.3 percent this year and 3.0 percent in 2013. (Photo by Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images)
Spanish Unions Protests Planned Government Cutbacks
MADRID, SPAIN – APRIL 29: A girl carries a vuvuzela during a demonstration organized by Unions against the financial cuts in health and education on April 29, 2012 in Madrid. (Photo by Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images)

People wait at a bus stop in front of an Asian shop after shopping in downtown Malaga, southern Spain May 4, 2012. The euro zone economy worsened markedly in April, according to business surveys. (REUTERS/Jon Nazca)

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